Election 2014 - The Aftermath

There are pundits galore, all over the political universe it seems, who will make meaning out of yesterday's election results. Be careful whom you choose to believe.

I have remained intentionally silent in the run up to this election, privately hoping for the results we observed, but not going public with those aspirations. Putting control of the Senate back into the hands of the Republicans has little to do with their superior agenda, in my opinion. Rather, this election was a stout repudiation of Barack Obama's misguided policies across the whole political waterfront. His much-ballyhooed base seemingly evaporated in this election. The vaunted Democratic election machine ground to an embarrassingly squeaky halt.

We are being told this morning the Democrats need to reinvent themselves in the wake of this stunning defeat for Barack Obama as leader of the party.

He won't see it that way, and in fact one of his aides was quoted this morning in the NY Times as saying exactly that: "He doesn't feel repudiated." And this from a man who boldly declared this election was about ALL his policies, "every single one."

It wasn't that long ago there were cries for the Republicans to reinvent themselves, allegations they were a divided party in search of unity, woefully unable to connect to the American people. Well, times change, people change their views, and the political pendulum swings back and forth. Now it is the Republicans who are trending upward. And that will change someday too.

Not only did Republicans win seven Democratic Senate seats (and counting), lost none, and took control of the Senate, but they did something far more significant for the long term health of the Republic by dislodging Harry Reid (D-NV) as the Senate Majority Leader. He has single-handedly and heavy-handedly, broken the Senate rules repeatedly to make new rules to suit his own political needs.

This morning, he sounded like a statesman: “I’d like to congratulate Senator McConnell (R-KY), who will be the new Senate Majority Leader. The message from voters is clear: they want us to work together. I look forward to working with Senator McConnell to get things done for the middle class.”

Based on what Harry Reid has done for the middle class over the last six years, no one should be holding their breath that Harry Reid will ever become anything but the obstructionist he has always been. But hope springs eternal, I suppose. History, I predict, will judge Harry Reid harshly as the author of chaos and divisiveness in the legislative process these last six years. I hope Republicans will model true leadership better, now that the reins are in their hands. I am, and will always be, optimistic about the future of America.

In addition, the Republicans added more governorships throughout the country. Democrats won only one and lost four, including bluer than blue Maryland. Even Illinois added a Republican governor! In the House, Democrats lost at least eight seats, probably more when the final results are in. There are now more House Republicans on Capitol Hill than have been seated since World War II.

Mia Love's family

Several firsts in the House include the election of Mia Love (R-UT), the first black Republican conservative woman, who is also a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. That is an historic "first" worth celebrating, and the citizens of the 4th Utah Congressional District are to be congratulated for their foresight.

Orrin Hatch (R-UT) finally is realizing his dream to become the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and as an added bonus he will be named the President Pro Tempore, now fourth in line to the presidency and the recipient of his own Secret Service security detail. For the uninitiated, that office is provided for in the Constitution (yes, we are still governed by it), and is the senior Senator in the majority party who sits (ceremoniously) in the seat of the President of the Senate, who is the Vice President, when the Vice President is not there (which is nearly always never).

There’s no reason to gloat this morning. You couldn't fairly call it a "wave" election. But it could be accurately characterized as the election where Democrats suffered worse than the mid-terms four years ago in 2010.

I hope I'm not stretching too far to think this might just be the end of the liberal progressive Democratic governance and all of Washington's gross spending excesses. My fear is that Republicans have been prone in the past to be the all too willing collaborators for the spending orgy.

Let's hope for some responsible budget setting governance to replace what we've witnessed in the last six years.

Control of the Senate is Paramount

Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney

There are a number of reasons to stay focused on the race for the White House. We all know what the past four years has meant to the dilution of freedom and prosperity. We cannot afford the lack of leadership coming from President Barack Obama for another four years. It is imperative that we unite behind Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to have any chance to change the trajectory of the future of America. The current course is not only unsustainable, it will be unalterable and will subject us to changes that will be forced upon us not of our own making.

One key reason to elect Mitt Romney is the likelihood that Supreme Court nominations will be in order sometime during the next four-year POTUS term. The Court is aging. One or two seats on the nine-member SCOTUS will come up and the POTUS will make those nominations. The directional tilt of the court will be affected for many years to come. Let us be reminded again that the SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare last summer has put the voters front and center this November to pick their path forward on that and every other issue.

Some may recall the slogan "It's the economy, stupid" used by Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential campaign. That campaign was trying to make the point that George H. W. Bush had not adequately addressed the economy. It was James Carville, Clinton's chief political strategist, who hung the poster inside campaign headquarters. It stuck as a defining political slogan for the whole election cycle that year. The clear message was that if Americans felt economically secure they would stick with Bush. If not, they would change course and vote their pocketbooks. Is the same going to be true this year? How can ANYONE claim success in the Obama administration for bolstering our economic outlook in the last four years?

I would assert the slogan is perhaps more meaningful in 2012, than it has ever been. We're considering letting  Barack Obama's dismal economic record continue into the future. His only appeal for re-election is that we're on the right path, we just need a little more time? PUHLEEZE! Will Obama suddenly become the world leader he promised he would be in 2008? Not likely. This election should be a no-brainer if you understand how devastating the policies (or lack of a coherent economic strategy) have been in dampening and nearly extinguishing economic hope and growth. The uncertainty has been palpable. Romney/Ryan will provide leadership in the vacuum Obama has created.

Let me suggest another aspect of how to get control back into the hands of the people - "It's the Senate, stupid." That's what Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) says, along with Senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY), and I couldn't agree more. We must put in place Senators to help these three, who can instill conservative values as a majority in the United States Senate.

Here's what WON'T happen without a more conservative Senate:

We won't repeal Obamacare.
We won't balance the budget.
We won't secure our borders.
We won't stop the bailouts.
We won't enact the pro-growth policies needed to get America back to work.

We MUST change the control of the Senate and make Harry Reid the Senate MINORITY leader.

Winning the Senate is going to be a key element in restoring America. When (not if) Mitt Romney wins the presidency, he must have a conservative Senate to install his agenda to put America back to work again. The real percentage of unemployed is more like 21%. Just last month 384,000 were first time applicants for unemployment. Not counted in the Washington spin for unemployment is the number who have given up looking for work or dropped out of the job market. Congress writes the bills to enact a President's legislative wish list. To get Congress moving again there must be a majority in place in both Houses. Don't be surprised to see America finally get serious about reforms that will cut spending, balance the budget and begin attacking the deficit spending. The only way that happens is to elect people who are pledged to those outcomes.

Do you think for one minute Harry Reid will ever send a bill to the President Mitt Romney's desk to repeal Obamacare? Only a few states can affect this outcome of taking back the Senate this November. Only the voters in these states can make it happen. Eight states, eight candidates for the U.S. Senate. Here they are:

Josh Mandel (Ohio)
Ted Cruz (Texas)
Jeff Flake (Arizona)
Richard Mourdock (Indiana)
Deb Fischer (Nebraska)
George Allen (Virginia)
Tom Smith (Pennsylvania)
Dan Bongino (Maryland)

These candidates understand the critical role the U.S. Constitution plays in preserving our freedoms and they will champion, rather than ignore, those guiding principles. These candidates can walk the walk. They believe in small government and capitalism. If you know voters in these critical state Senate races, encourage them to step up and support the election of these candidates.

Top Five Reasons It's Time To Retire Orrin Hatch

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) has served six terms in the U.S. Senate. He unseated Frank Moss so long ago as a young upstart conservative hot shot that few voters are old enough to remember his reasoning. Hatch said at the time that Moss had served too long, and that there should be no such thing as a career politician.

That was thirty-six years ago. And now Senator Hatch is asking Utahns for an unprecedented seventh six-year term, making him 84 years old at the end of it!

His reasons for re-election are not unlike the ones Frank Moss once used: Experience, knowledge, influence, clout, seniority. In fact, the primary reason one keeps hearing from the Hatch camp has now been undermined by the announcement this week that liberal Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) is retiring. Hatch has been saying if we don't re-elect him, Snowe would take the chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee instead of him. I weary of the hypotheticals, but if we don't send Hatch back to the Senate, the next Republican in line would be Mike Crapo (R-ID), not a bad alternative to Hatch, since Crapo is very conservative. Of course, that all assumes the Republicans will take control of the Senate this year, a task now made arguably more difficult with Snowe's announcement.

So herewith, my top five reasons Senator Orrin Hatch should be retired by the nominating convention, since he refuses to walk away with dignity on his own:

1. He's old. Senator Hatch will be 78 years old on election day. No politician in the history of the state of Utah has EVER been elected at that age in a statewide election. Age itself shouldn't be an automatic disqualifier, but when you've served for thirty-six years as a senator, it's definitely the number one reason for retirement. My Dad's 90 years old, and even he thinks Orrin's too old. It takes one to know one, I guess.

2. Senator Hatch has served long and well. Over the course of his storied political career (after saying there should be no such thing when he ran the first time), there are surely some votes in his record that one could find fault with. I am personally acquainted with Senator Hatch, and he helped me with an issue a few years ago. I remain very grateful to him. Some say he's not a true conservative. Some say he's just too liberal because of his cozy relationship with former Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. Some say his politics are more closely aligned with Washington D.C. values than Utah values. Well, whichever view you take of his record you are welcome to it. I have voted for him six times. I have no problem with his politics. He just needs to accept the fact he can retire gracefully, wish his competitors well, and step aside to make way for the younger generation. No shame. Be content. Be a statesman. Be happy with all you have achieved. But he won't because of reason number 3.

3. Orrin Hatch in his heart of hearts actually believes he is indispensable and irreplaceable. One could even argue that he paved the way for two Mormon presidential candidates this year by being the first Mormon in the modern era to run for the presidency of the United States (Joseph Smith was running the year he was assassinated in 1844). But we must not forget George Romney before Hatch also was a bold political pioneer for Mormons, to say nothing of Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader (but he's another story). There are 33 seats up for election in the Senate this November. Ten of those seats are being abandoned by Senators who have announced their retirement. Hatch is convinced that his Heavenly Father would be disappointed in him if he were to step aside now and not continue to use his talents, seniority and political skills to be part of the ongoing equation politically in this country. He really wants the longevity record for Senate service. However, he can be replaced, he will be replaced, and life in America's Capitol and the state of Utah will go on without him. There's a reason no one in Utah's congressional delegation or Utah's governor has endorsed him. They all feel in their heart of hearts what's coming for Orrin.

4. I'm already looking past the 3500 statewide caucuses on March 15th at 7:00 p.m. By the way, if you aren't sure where your precinct will be meeting, check out utgop.org. Pre-register on the site, look up your precinct by typing in your address, then plan to attend. At the caucus your neighbors will be nominated and elected to political offices, including precinct chairmen, county nominating delegates and state nominating convention delegates. They will state their position on which candidates they favor, and you will have a chance to voice your opinion with your vote. I will be going to put myself forward as a state delegate again. I will announce my intention to support another candidate this year, rather than Hatch. I'm keeping an open mind this year, but leaning right now toward Dan Liljenquist. If my neighbors agree with me in caucus and elect me as a state delegate, then I expect to attend the state nominating convention next, and there I will join with other like-minded delegates who will most likely do to Senator Hatch what they did to Senator Bennett two years ago. And when that happens, please do not buy into the media spin that it will be whacked out right-wing conservative extremists (Tea Partiers, if you must) who are tossing out Senator Hatch. Rather, it will be thoughtful, careful and seasoned observers like me who just think that 36 years is enough. It's just enough. That's all.

5. It's time to impose term limits. There's an idea that must be enthroned in our thinking as Americans if we are ever to turn our politics around in this country. It is simple. It's called term limits, and they are granted to citizens who can go to the polling places in the general elections and work their will at the ballot box. They can change government peacefully and under the banner of the Constitution of the United States every two years nationally. There is no such thing as a perpetual entitlement to an elected office in this country. Senator Hatch has had a long run, even a good run most would say, and now it must come to an end. His attitude is reminiscent of the arrogance we observed in Senator Bennett (he was 77 years old in 2010). "They've taken away my career," he said through his tears when ousted by the delegates. There is and never has been, indeed never should be any such thing as "a political career." The political class has nearly destroyed America. In each case they could have stepped aside with a proud legacy of accomplishment and service. However, each has sadly chosen to go out with a stinging rebuke by voters instead. It is reminiscent of what happens in the playoffs in professional sports. In the end there are always many losers and only one winner. By retiring and stepping aside gracefully, each could have gone out a winner in everyone's mind and been a true statesman. One can only hope Senator Hatch will accept the judgment of his peers with more grace and humility than did Senator Bennett, who recently characterized his dismissal as being "excommunicated by the GOP."

I really almost hope I'm wrong. I've stated before that I'm not much of a prognosticator when it comes to predicting political outcomes. You can dismiss my five reasons out of hand and not offend me. But this time I have a feeling.

I'm feeling that for the first time in his life Orrin Hatch will be defeated.

Four Reasons the Dems Lose the Senate in 2012

Going into the final week of the 2010 midterm campaign, it was obvious the Republicans were going to win the House of Representatives in shocking numbers. It wasn't "if" they would win, only by "how much?"

I harbored hope the same thing would happen in the Senate, but at the end two narrow victories and two "surprises" preserved the 52-48 majority for the Democrats. Chistine O'Donnell in Delaware proved a big disappointment to the tea partiers, but her loss was not one of the surprises.

The two narrow victories came in Colorado and Washington. Recounts settled both those states and they went to the Democrats. The two surprises happened in Nevada and West Virginia, when the Republican candidates faltered down the stretch though they had led earlier, preserving Harry Reid's seat and the old seat vacated by the death of Robert Byrd.

I am optimistic (but not yet convinced) the Republicans can retain the House and regain the Senate, but they will have a shot at it only if they can now demonstrate their will to bow to the expressed will of the people to put our national house of fiscal responsibility in order. The reason it's dicey is the Republicans have not proven to be any better than the Democrats in reining in spending in recent years. It's got to change, and they will have one last shot at it.

That's JOB ONE. They will not retain the confidence of the voters unless they succeed with that.

However, with that one caveat attached to my assessment, 2012 shapes up as a better chance for success at retaking the Senate than this last election. The Constitution provides for a turnover every two years of one-third of the Senate seats. The last several years have brought several new faces into the two houses of Congress. I suspect that trend to continue unabated.

There are four good reasons why:

1. The states up for seats in 2012 offer more "red" possibilities than the blue ones. Here are the states to watch as the 2012 election season swings into high gear. Switching seats in North Dakota, Florida, Nebraska, Virginia and Montana will put the Republicans in control by 52 - 48, and there are good reasons to suspect that might be the case.

2. Retirement announcements continue to pour in. Kent Conrad (D-ND) has announced he will not run again. Jim Webb (D-VA) has been vocally cool and coy about his enthusiasm for the Obama agenda, and hasn't been raising money for his re-election bid. George Allen has come out with his announcement to oppose Webb if he runs, and the smart money says it will be enough to get Webb to drop out. Herbert Kohl (D-WI) may also decide not to run (he's in his eighties now). Former Senator Russ Feingold may decide to challenge Kohl in a primary, and if he does Kohl may just hang it up. It's in the "hopeful" category for Republicans because they picked up the governorship in Wisconsin, both houses in the state legislature, a Senate seat and more House seats in 2010. Bill Nelson (D-FL), and Ben Nelson (D-NE) will both face tough races in 2012 from stronger Republican candidates. Neither may run because of the strong opposition against the Democrats in 2010.

3. I heard Dick Morris, Clinton's former strategist (turned traitor against the Clintonistas) handicapping the Senate races in an interview last week. According to Morris, Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) may sit it out in 2012 after watching New Mexico go Republican in 2010. John Tester (D-MT) won by less than 1 point in 2006, and should be an easy target for someone in red Montana. So now you can put North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia and Montana in the "highly likely" column for Republican victories in 2012.

4. In the "good possibility" column pencil in whoever opposes either Kohl or Feingold in Wisconsin. Morris goes on to speculate Bob Casey (D-PA) can be beaten, as well as Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Bill Nelson (D-FA) probably won't win again, and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) will likely lose to former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Republicans will also have a good shot against Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). Joe Manchin (D-WV) faces mounting scandals, and his failure to make good on his promise to "vote like a Republican" may cost him his seat. New Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) is making big waves in that state since his victory in November, and when one looks out to 2012, Bob Menendez (D-NJ) who suffers from lack of moral turpitude (I'm being kind) could be easy pickings.

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

Of course, here in Utah a Republican "hold" is virtually a lock. Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT), currently the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, is a 36-year veteran of the Senate from the "reddest state" in the Union. He is building his re-election bid on the hope the Republicans WILL indeed win the majority in the Senate, making him the de facto incoming Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee in 2012. He's leading the way again by proposing (for the 17th time in his storied Senate career) a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U. S. Constitution. If ever there were a time for it, that time has finally come.

There's absolutely no threat of the Utah senate seat going Democrat, but Hatch faces the almost impossible uphill battle against his age and longevity. No one in the history of Utah has been elected to the Senate who would be as old as Hatch (78) on election day 2012. He's popping up everywhere in the social media as he tries to connect with his constituents. He's never lost an election! Even Abraham Lincoln can't say that!

He's much more formidable than Bob Bennett, but there are many who believe despite his strengths he can be taken down. All it will take is the right replacement candidate, so watch for those who emerge from within the ranks of the Republicans to challenge him. As good as Hatch has been, the people are whispering, "Enough is enough, Orrin." They would prefer that he bow out gracefully now and make way for a younger generation. But it won't happen. Hatch is determined to set some longevity records and damn the torpedoes.


If he is re-elected (and it's still a big IF), he will have served 42 years of his 84 years at the end of his next term as a U.S. Senator. Love him or loathe him he's got proven staying power, but there will be many challengers on the Republican side who will hope to repeat Mike Lee's stunning defeat of Bob Bennett in 2010.

It's still too early to handicap any of these races just yet, but it's fun to speculate.