Saturday, October 23, 2010

Four Reasons Philpot Will Beat Matheson

Morgan Philpot's Family
I am a state delegate from Precinct 11 in Wasatch County.  Historically, 2nd District Congressman Jim Matheson (D-UT) has received significant support from our county in his five previous terms.  The reason is because registered Republicans like me have routinely crossed over and supported him. 

That is not true this year!

In an e-mail blast from Wasatch County Philpot for Congress coordinator, Aaron Gabrielson, I received an update on the progress of the campaign.  Morgan Philpot and Jim Matheson squared off this week in St. George at their only public debate.  I wished I could have been there, but seeing it for yourselves should seal the deal for Philpot:

It's unfortunate when incumbents with overwhelming leads in the polls refuse to give the electorate a clear picture of their positions by withholding themselves from public events like this one.  Matheson has a financial advantage by 10-1 over Philpot in campaign funding.  He's sitting on it, like he is his lead.  It happens every time there's an election.  Rather than willingly submit to public scrutiny they cower in the corners to protect their leads in the polls, relying upon name recognition alone to carry them through election day.  As the video stream of their debate clearly illustrates, there are substantive differences between these two candidates.  The choice could not be more differentiated. 

Four reasons Philpot will win

A)  Jim Matheson is a Democrat in a year when Democrats are as popular as a hurricane in kite flying weather;
B)  Matheson's a much more liberal Congressman than any of his constituents previously believed;
C)  Morgan Philpot is much more representative of his constituents than Matheson will ever be; and finally,
D)  There is an uprising nationwide and here in Wasatch County against incumbents of any stripe. 

It's just not a good year to be Jim Matheson anywhere within his district, and particularly in Wasatch County.

Aaron's e-mail blast explains:

Poll Predicts Philpot Win over Matheson

A recently completed poll conducted by the Wasatch County Philpot For Congress campaign predicts that Republican Morgan Philpot will win in the county over five-term incumbent Democrat Jim Matheson.

The poll received 738 responses from registered voters in the county and shows 51% support for Philpot among registered Republicans and 47% with unaffiliated voters. Matheson scored 31% and 37%, respectively. 16% of respondents were undecided and registered Democrats were not included in the poll.

Based on those results and awarding Matheson 100% of the registered Democrats, indicates a 4% margin of victory for Philpot in Wasatch County.

County Philpot coordinator, Aaron Gabrielson, said, "Matheson has won Wasatch County by large margins in previous elections. A poll showing him behind at this point shows that voters are dissatisfied with Congress in general and with Matheson specifically. Wasatch County has always been Matheson territory. If he can't win here, I don't see how Matheson will win the election."

The poll results follow an anti-incumbent trend across the nation that is likely to result in Republicans regaining control of the House of Representatives.

"This poll actually looks worse for Matheson than it first appears, because Democratic turnout is expected to be lower this year and Republican turnout should be higher. If that happens, Philpot could win by a margin of 8% or more. However, Matheson has a big money advantage in this race, so the Philpot campaign still has a lot of work to do."

When asked about a recent Dan Jones poll showing a large lead for Matheson, Gabrielson responded, "I have taken a look at that poll. It was from a small sample with a big margin of error and included a large percentage of Democrats. I think even the Matheson campaign is not putting much trust in it. Back in 2008 during the 3rd District primary, polls showed Cannon up by 4% and Chaffetz ended up winning by 20%."

* * *

Don't be too surprised if the same dynamic plays out this year in the Utah 2nd Congressional District race across all the counties in the district, not just Wasatch.  If the Republicans just show up to vote, and they follow my lead and the other "reformed" Republican voters in Wasatch County who will finally abandon Matheson after being "irrational" in our former support of his liberal voting record, then our next Congressman will be Morgan Philpot.

This is the year to make a difference by taking down one Democrat seat in Congress on the march toward taking down 41 and wresting control from the disastrous majority we have witnessed in the last two years.

Last week, I read an analysis by some pollsters stating there may be as many as 100 Congressional seats in play that could move into the Republican side of the aisle.  If that is true and those predictions play out on election day, this 2010 tsunami I spoke about earlier in the year will have historic ramifications. 

President Obama and Senator Reid
Make no mistake about it -- this mid-term election is a referendum on Barack Obama, plain and simple.  Harry Reid is experiencing a lot of push back in his race for re-election in Nevada.  President Obama is stumping for him every chance he gets.  How can anyone conclude anything other than a loss by Harry Reid, the number one Democrat in the Senate, is a complete refutation of Obama's policies and the agenda he has put forward? 

If Bob Bennett can lose in Utah, then Harry Reid can lose in Nevada.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
Don't hold your breath over this one, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is in the most competitive race she's faced for re-election in years.  It seems even in her "true blue" liberal home district her popularity is waning.  Here again, when one sees serious challenges to the leaders of the party, Reid and Pelosi, in trouble and threatened at home in their own states, one must conclude this mid-term as perhaps never before is all about the country's revulsion at the way they've been treated these last two years.

I wondered aloud on this page months ago who was doing the political calculations within the Democrat Party, when the evidence suggested they were arrogantly going about mustering their votes for the most liberal lurch to the left I have ever witnessed during my lifetime. I called it "the mother of all political cramdowns," when they passed Obamacare. 

And now we are seeing nothing but an aroused and angry electorate pushing back, as the chickens come home to roost.  I have believed for some time the Republicans set a poor example under the Bush administration.  We lived through a reprehensible period with their profligate spending habits and rampant desires for "deficits-don't-matter" wars and nation building attitudes.  Rather than learn from the rejection at the polls that handed control of the presidency and both houses of Congress to the Democrats in 2008, we have seen an acceleration of the same wrong-headed direction they have taken the country. 

Obama completely misread his "mandate" from the election.  Surprise of all surprises -- the people wanted him to take the country in a different direction than out-of-control spending.  They didn't want social re-engineering after all.  They rejected Obamacare resoundingly.  They wanted economic recovery, not stifling regulation and taxation for as far as the eye can see.  They wanted business-friendly stimulants, not anti-business legislation and trillions of dollars of foreign debt for "shovel-ready" projects that still don't seem to be "ready."  Turns out the only shoveling that got done was the knee-deep manure in the political barnyard.

Maybe on November 2nd, 2010, the only way to change course is to fire the incumbents and begin anew.  Maybe this time someone in Washington D.C. will finally be listening to the will of the people.

Make no miscalculations this time, they will be speaking. . . make that shouting out loud.

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